Diplomacy Under Fire: Türkiye’s Balancing Act Amid Escalating Middle East Hostilities

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Credit: Mert Gokhan Koc/Dia Images via AP

The sudden escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran in June 2025 has precipitated one of the most devastating crises in the Middle East in recent years. The conflict, triggered by Israel’s surprise large-scale attacks on Iranian military, nuclear, and civilian sites, and Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Israeli territory, has resulted in significant human suffering, widespread displacement, and a precarious regional security environment. In this context, Türkiye’s role as a humanitarian actor and regional mediator has become both critical and unique, building on its historical legacy of humanitarian support and refugee hosting.

Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage

The conflict’s human toll is staggering. According to Iranian official sources, Israel’s initial surprise attacks on June 13, 2025, killed at least 935 people, including 38 children and 132 women, while injuring over 5,300 individuals. Independent monitors report even higher figures, with some estimates reaching 1,190 deaths in Iran, including civilians and military personnel. Among the casualties were at least 14 nuclear scientists and 20 senior military commanders, highlighting the targeted nature of the strikes.

In Israel, Iranian missile and drone retaliation caused at least 29 deaths and over 3,400 injuries, with strikes hitting Tel Aviv and other urban centers. The Israeli Ministry of Health confirmed 29 deaths and thousands wounded by late June. Both countries saw heavy damage to civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and residential areas, amplifying the humanitarian crisis.

The United Nations and human rights organizations have condemned the attacks for their disproportionate impact on civilians. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated:

 “It is appalling to see how civilians are treated as collateral damage in the conduct of hostilities” 

and warned that the conflict “risks setting the whole region ablaze”. Human Rights Watch and other watchdogs have highlighted violations of international humanitarian law, particularly concerning the targeting of protected civilian sites.

Displacement and Refugee Flows

The conflict triggered massive displacement within Iran and Israel and exacerbated existing refugee crises in the region. Tehran experienced a large-scale exodus, with millions fleeing the capital in the early hours of the fighting, seeking refuge in northern Iran and other safer areas5. The attacks on health infrastructure and public services have placed enormous strain on Iran’s already stretched social systems5.

Moreover, the conflict intensified mixed migration flows across the Middle East. Refugees from Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza—already vulnerable due to previous conflicts—faced renewed insecurity. Türkiye, hosting the world’s largest refugee population with over 3.1 million refugees (mainly Syrians but also Afghans and Iraqis), saw increased humanitarian need. In May 2025 alone, Türkiye distributed $0.39 million in cash assistance to over 35,700 people through e-vouchers and cash transfers.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that nearly 600,000 Syrian refugees returned home from neighboring countries between December 2024 and June 2025, with Türkiye playing a central role in coordinating safe returns and humanitarian assistance.

Economic and Military Costs

The economic toll on Israel and Iran is profound. Israel’s defense operations reportedly cost between $285 million and $725 million per night, with each interceptor missile costing between $1 million and $3 million. Iran’s infrastructure damage and military losses have further strained its economy, already weakened by sanctions and internal challenges.

The conflict’s regional ripple effects have also unsettled neighboring countries, which seek to maintain a delicate balance amid the crisis. Egypt, for example, has prioritized stability and cooperation with the US, avoiding overt involvement despite popular pro-Palestinian sentiments.

Türkiye’s Humanitarian Leadership and Diplomatic Engagement

Türkiye’s Historical and Current Humanitarian Role

Türkiye’s position as a humanitarian player in the Middle East is unparalleled. It hosts the largest refugee population globally and has a well-established humanitarian aid system. In 2025, Türkiye’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) reached $7.4 billion, representing 0.56% of its Gross National Income (GNI)—a testament to its commitment to humanitarian causes.

The Turkish Red Crescent and UNHCR have a long-standing partnership, enabling efficient delivery of aid and refugee protection. The UNHCR High Commissioner praised Türkiye’s efforts, stating:

“Türkiye has set a clear example of humanitarian leadership during an emergency”.

Turkish Red Crescent President Ahmet Lütfi Akar emphasized the importance of sustainable cooperation for beneficiaries, highlighting Türkiye’s role in ensuring aid reaches those in need effectively.

Türkiye’s humanitarian response has extended beyond its borders, addressing the needs of refugees displaced by the Israel-Iran conflict and supporting regional stability.

Diplomatic Initiatives and Mediation Efforts

Beyond humanitarian aid, Türkiye has emerged as a key diplomatic actor seeking to de-escalate the conflict. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been vocal in condemning the violence while advocating for dialogue. He stated: 

“Türkiye is making great efforts to prevent attacks by Israel and its supporters on Iran from spiraling into a greater disaster… We never condone attacks on Iran’s sovereignty and the security of the region, no matter who they come from”.

Erdoğan further stressed the necessity of diplomacy: 

“Lasting solutions with Iran are only possible through diplomacy and dialogue… War and destruction lead nowhere”. 

His administration has engaged with Iran, the US, and other regional actors to promote ceasefire adherence and humanitarian access.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan echoed these sentiments, condemning Israel’s actions and calling for peace: 

“Standing with genocidal Israel no longer reflects well on anyone… Ankara calls for an immediate ceasefire, facilitating humanitarian aid, and ensuring a peaceful resolution”.

Türkiye hosted meetings under the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and participated actively in NATO summits to mobilize international support for peace and humanitarian relief.

Türkiye’s Unique Geopolitical Position

Türkiye’s geographic proximity to Iran and its historical ties to both the Arab world and Western alliances place it in a unique position to act as a mediator and humanitarian hub. Its existing infrastructure for refugee support and emergency response, developed over years of managing the Syrian refugee crisis and other regional emergencies, enables rapid and large-scale humanitarian interventions.

The compounded challenges of the 2023 earthquakes, economic instability, and now the Israel-Iran conflict have increased the vulnerability of both refugees and host communities within Türkiye. Despite these pressures, Türkiye continues to prioritize humanitarian assistance and regional stability.

Regional and International Reactions

The broader Middle East and international community have responded with a mix of concern, condemnation, and calls for restraint. The United Nations has repeatedly urged both Israel and Iran to respect international humanitarian law and avoid civilian harm. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk emphasized:

“The only way out of this spiralling illogic of escalation is maximum restraint, full respect for international law, and return in good faith to the negotiating table”.

International human rights organizations, including FIDH and Human Rights Watch, have condemned the deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure by both sides, calling for immediate de-escalation.

The US government initially distanced itself from Israel’s surprise attack but later joined military actions against Iranian nuclear sites, further complicating the conflict dynamics. The ceasefire brokered by the US on June 24, 2025, has so far held, though tensions remain high.

Neighboring countries, including Egypt, have maintained ambiguous stances, prioritizing stability and avoiding direct involvement while managing their own security concerns.

Türkiye’s Pivotal Role Amidst Devastation

The 2025 Israel-Iran conflict has inflicted a severe humanitarian toll, with hundreds of deaths, thousands wounded, and widespread displacement. The economic and social consequences extend beyond the immediate combatants, threatening regional stability.

In this volatile environment, Türkiye’s role as a humanitarian leader and diplomatic mediator is both significant and indispensable. Its extensive refugee hosting experience, robust humanitarian aid infrastructure, and active diplomatic engagement position it uniquely to address the crisis’s human costs and foster pathways toward peace.

As President Erdoğan affirmed, 

“Türkiye is making great efforts to prevent attacks… from spiraling into a greater disaster”, 

underscoring the country’s commitment to peace and humanitarian principles. The international community’s recognition of Türkiye’s efforts highlights the critical need for sustained support and cooperation to mitigate the conflict’s devastating human impact.

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