Afghanistan is confronting one of the world’s largest displacement crises, shaped not by a single shock but by the convergence of mass returns, severe drought, economic contraction, and the systematic exclusion of women from public life. The United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) describe the situation as a compound emergency in which “crises rarely happen one at a time,” as Alexander De Croo, UNDP Administrator, noted during a recent high-level visit to Kabul. The scale is staggering: nearly 5 million Afghans have returned between 2023 and 2025, with 2.9 million returning in 2025 alone, while an estimated 74% of the population—around 29 million people—cannot meet their basic needs. This analysis examines the drivers, impacts, and policy implications of the crisis, drawing on the latest UN data and contextual stakeholder statements.
The Anatomy of Displacement: Returns, Conflict, and Climate Shocks
The current displacement landscape in Afghanistan is defined by three overlapping dynamics: mass returns from Iran and Pakistan, protracted internal displacement driven by decades of conflict, and climate-induced displacement linked to drought and natural disasters. Return movements have accelerated dramatically since 2023. UN officials report that around 6 million Afghans have returned since 2023, a figure that Burham Salih, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, has described as
“one of the largest return movements globally.”
These returns are not voluntary migrations in the classic sense; they are often forced expulsions from host countries combined with deteriorating economic conditions abroad. Many returnees arrive with no savings, documentation, or housing, placing immense pressure on already fragile border provinces and host communities.
Internally, Afghanistan continues to host one of the largest populations of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the world. Earlier data from the World Bank and UN agencies indicate that conflict- and violence-induced internal displacement stood at 4.2 million in 2024, with an estimated 3.22 million IDPs currently residing within the country alongside 1.6 million IDP returnees. These figures reflect four decades of armed conflict that have eroded livelihoods, destroyed infrastructure, and fractured social cohesion. Climate change compounds these drivers. The UNDP’s 2025 Socio-Economic Review highlights that earthquakes, floods, and prolonged drought have damaged homes, clinics, and schools, slowing recovery and pushing families deeper into insecurity. Historically, drought has been as potent a driver of displacement as conflict; in 2018, for example, drought displaced more than 371,000 people—nearly as many as conflict did that year. Today, the cumulative effect of climate shocks and conflict has created a situation in which rural households, already stripped of assets and coping mechanisms, face unbearable conditions and are forced to move to urban peripheries in search of survival.
Economic Collapse and the Erosion of Livelihoods
Beneath the displacement figures lies a collapsing economy that offers little prospect of absorption or recovery for returnees and IDPs. The UNDP reports that real GDP growth slowed to 1.9% in 2025, while the population grew by 6.5%, resulting in a 2.1% decline in real GDP per capita compared to 2020 levels. This demographic-economic mismatch means that even modest growth is insufficient to offset the needs of a rapidly expanding population. The human impact is severe. More than 80% of households are in debt, and nearly three-quarters rely on negative coping strategies such as selling assets, skipping meals, or taking children out of school. Among recent returnees, the situation is even more dire: 92% face subsistence insecurity, meaning they cannot afford basic food, shelter, or healthcare. The contraction of international assistance has exacerbated the crisis; total aid to Afghanistan declined by 16.5% in 2025, contributing to clinic closures and reduced access to essential services.
The Gender Dimension: Exclusion as a Driver of Crisis
A defining feature of Afghanistan’s displacement crisis is the systematic exclusion of women and girls from education, employment, and public life. This is not merely a human rights issue; it is a structural driver of economic and humanitarian collapse. Alexander De Croo was unequivocal on this point, stating during his visit:
“You need all hands on deck, you need all the talents that are available, and that is male talent but also female talent.”
He called on authorities to ensure access to education, employment, and entrepreneurship for women and girls, warning that the country’s recovery is impossible without their full participation. Burham Salih echoed this assessment, noting that
“Afghanistan deserves support, but for us to be able to do so, there needs to be collaboration and cooperation,”
and adding that the country’s development “cannot happen without” women and girls. The UNDP’s socioeconomic review underscores the gendered impact of the crisis: women, IDPs, and returnees are particularly hard hit, facing restricted mobility, limited access to services, and heightened protection risks. In this context, the Taliban’s ideological restrictions on women are not peripheral; they are central to understanding why Afghanistan’s displacement crisis is so intractable.
Humanitarian Response and the Funding Gap
The international humanitarian community has launched a $1.71 billion appeal for 2026 to reach 17.5 million Afghans in need, but the appeal is only about 10% funded. This funding gap is not an abstract figure; it translates into clinic closures, reduced food distributions, and diminished protection services for millions of vulnerable people. UN officials have warned that Afghanistan’s alienation from the international community is preventing progress on economic self-sufficiency, security cooperation, counter-terrorism, human rights, and the humanitarian crisis. The Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation (MoRR) has acknowledged the scale of the challenge. Mawlawi Abdul Rahman Rashid, Deputy Minister of Refugees and Repatriation, welcomed the recent UN envoys, stating that
“the true picture of Afghan life could not be presented without close observation and direct engagement,”
and emphasizing that assessing refugee conditions and finding appropriate solutions are essential for preserving human dignity. However, the ministry’s capacity to respond is constrained by the same factors that drive the crisis: economic contraction, aid cuts, and ideologically driven policy restrictions.
The Regional Dimension: Returns from Iran and Pakistan
The displacement crisis cannot be understood without reference to Afghanistan’s neighbors. Iran and Pakistan have hosted millions of Afghans for decades, but recent crackdowns and deportations have accelerated returns. UNHCR reported in 2025 that more than 1.6 million Afghans returned from both countries in 2024 alone, a figure that surpassed earlier forecasts for the entire year. The agency described the situation as
“a chaotic wave of returnees from Iran and Pakistan… straining Afghanistan’s already fragile capacity under Taliban rule and threatening broader regional stability.”
These returns are not evenly distributed; they concentrate in border provinces that are already among the poorest and most insecure in the country. The influx overwhelms local services, fuels competition for scarce resources, and heightens the risk of social tension. For many returnees, the journey home is not a return to safety but a transition from one form of vulnerability to another.
Policy Implications: From Emergency Response to Durable Solutions
The current trajectory is unsustainable. Emergency humanitarian assistance, while essential, cannot address the structural drivers of displacement. The UNDP’s Solutions Framework and Road Map to Displacement in Afghanistan calls for a shift from short-term aid to long-term investments in livelihoods, shelter, access to services, and the inclusion of women in all spheres of public life. Key policy priorities include reversing the exclusion of women, scaling up livelihood support, investing in climate resilience, fostering regional cooperation, and ensuring sustained international engagement. As Alexander De Croo stated, recovery requires “all hands on deck,” including female talent. Aid cuts and diplomatic isolation deepen the crisis; the international community must maintain humanitarian funding while pursuing targeted engagement on human rights and governance.thestar.com+2
Afghanistan’s displacement crisis is not an inevitable outcome of geography or history; it is the result of policy choices—both domestic and international. The convergence of mass returns, drought, economic collapse, and gender exclusion has created a humanitarian emergency of historic proportions. The statements of UN leaders and Afghan officials make clear that the path forward requires collaboration, inclusion, and sustained investment. Without a fundamental shift in approach, the crisis will deepen, with consequences that extend far beyond Afghanistan’s borders.
