Since early 2025, Iran has intensified one of the largest mass deportation campaigns in its modern history against Afghan migrants and refugees. In response to growing regional tensions following the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, Tehran issued sweeping orders to expel undocumented Afghans by an early July deadline, resulting in the expulsion or forced return of more than 1 million Afghans in just over six months. According to figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), from January to mid-July alone, 574,000 Afghans returned from Iran in the past 22 days, with at least 339,000 forcibly deported. On some days, such as July 1, the border witnessed a staggering surge with up to 43,000 people crossing into Afghanistan from Iran.
Afghanistan is now confronted with a flood of returnees—many exhausted, destitute, and traumatized—who fled conflicts or long resided in Iran. Experts warn that the scale and pace of deportations vastly surpass Afghanistan’s absorption capacity, aggravating one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. The returning populations include entire families, with children comprising approximately 25% of deportees. Many arrive without shelter, access to healthcare, or means to sustain themselves amid Afghanistan’s persistent insecurity, economic hardships, and limited public services.
Iranian Government Actions and Justifications
The deportation surge follows long-building tensions in Iran’s policy toward Afghan refugees. Historically hosting over 4 million Afghans, including roughly 780,000 registered refugees and nearly 2 million undocumented migrants, Iran’s tolerance shrank significantly as it cited national security concerns post-Israel conflict.
Iranian officials publicly framed the crackdown as enforcement against those lacking legal residency. As spokesperson Fateh Moherani stated,
“those possessing valid legal documents will be permitted to remain in accordance with the law, while those lacking legal documentation may be required to leave.”
However, investigations reveal these deportations involve widespread harassment, arrests, and coercion rather than orderly and lawful repatriation.
Moreover, Iran’s state-controlled media fueled scapegoating by branding Afghans as potential “spies,” stoking xenophobic and discriminatory sentiments. Human rights groups condemn these tactics as unjust and dangerous, highlighting the vulnerability of millions marginalized within Iranian society.
Dire Humanitarian Conditions Among Returnees
The humanitarian fallout is catastrophic. Reports by Islamic Relief Worldwide and other aid groups document alarming deficiencies:
- 88% of returnees lack safe drinking water
- 83% have no access to health services
- 100% are in urgent need of household essentials like blankets and clothing
- 68% possess no income or means for survival
With limited infrastructure and humanitarian funding sharply reduced in Afghanistan, agencies face mounting challenges delivering vital services. The UN warns that the rapid influx risks deepening instability, fueling displacement cycles, and overwhelming fragile health and social systems.
UNHCR Afghanistan representative Arafat Jamal warned,
“Many are returning to a country they barely know… while deep funding cuts have made humanitarian aid operations increasingly challenging.”
Conditions worsen as families encounter extreme weather exposure and lack of assistance immediately after crossing borders.
International and Regional Impacts
Iran’s mass expulsions are not isolated. Neighboring Pakistan has similarly intensified deportations under its “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan,” collectively pushing nearly 900,000 Afghans back to Afghanistan in 2025, with profound repercussions across the region.
This coordinated repatriation pressure affects over 6 million Afghans living abroad, the majority in Iran and Pakistan. Analysts note a “coercive regime of forced returns” forming, which risks exacerbating regional instability and humanitarian disaster.
Ibraheem Bahiss from the International Crisis Group contextualized,
“Iran’s plan to send four million undocumented Afghans back is poised to be the largest repatriation the region has seen in modern history.”
Such scale dwarfs previous repatriation efforts and highlights the urgency of a coordinated, comprehensive regional response.
Human Rights Concerns and Legal Violations
Independent observers, including the Center for Human Rights in Iran and various UN bodies, condemn the deportations as violations of international refugee law and human rights obligations.
Esfandiar Aban, senior researcher at the Center for Human Rights in Iran, emphasized,
“Iran is casting out entire communities—men, women, and children—based on prejudice and politics, to a country where their lives and most basic rights are under immediate threat… These deportations are an egregious violation of international law.”
Afghans forcibly returned often face no access to asylum procedures, legal representation, or appeal mechanisms. Many endure mistreatment during arrest and transit. The deportations disproportionately impact vulnerable groups such as women, children, elderly, and those with chronic illnesses, raising serious protection concerns.
Compounding these abuses are systemic issues: neither Iran nor Pakistan have ratified key international refugee conventions, leaving Afghan refugees with scant legal protections and little recourse against forced expulsion.
Challenges Within Afghanistan and Risks of Destabilization
Afghanistan itself remains ill-prepared to absorb vast numbers of returnees. The country is plagued by ongoing insurgency, political fragmentation, economic collapse, and strained public services.
The rapid influx overwhelms health clinics, housing, and basic social support, while food insecurity and unemployment persist at alarming levels. Many returnees have no choice but to rely on informal shelter or face renewed displacement internally or onward migration.
UN estimates warn that without urgent support, millions of returnees and displaced persons will endure worsening poverty, marginalization, and human suffering, further eroding fragile state structures and exacerbating security risks.
Calls for Immediate Global and Regional Action
Humanitarian agencies, international organizations, and civil society have urgently called for coordinated action to mitigate the unfolding crisis. The International Organization for Migration, UNHCR, and other stakeholders appealed for increased funding and expansion of emergency assistance in Afghanistan to provide water, food, shelter, medical aid, and protection services.
There is broad consensus that emergency relief alone is insufficient. Longer-term strategies addressing root causes of displacement, legal protections for refugees, and regional cooperation are vital.
Civil society and human rights defenders demand that Iran, Pakistan, and neighboring states halt coerced deportations and uphold international obligations to protect refugees and migrants. Aid groups stress the need for transparency in repatriation processes and safeguarding migrants’ rights.
The mass deportations of Afghans from Iran and rising repatriations mark one of the most severe displacement crises in recent memory. Tens of thousands of vulnerable individuals—many having lived decades in Iran—face abrupt uprooting into an insecure and resource-strapped Afghanistan.
The deepening refugee crisis demands urgent and concerted action from the international community, regional governments, humanitarian agencies, and human rights organizations. Ensuring dignity, protection, and sustainable solutions for millions of displaced Afghans is a moral and geopolitical imperative.
As one analyst summarized,
“This crisis cannot simply be contained at borders or shrugged off as another regional challenge. It requires global attention and solidarity before lives are irreversibly lost, and the broader regional stability further deteriorates.”
The window to prevent catastrophe is closing rapidly. Coordinated diplomatic pressure, increased humanitarian aid, legally grounded refugee protections, and durable solutions must all be priorities to address this critical humanitarian emergency.
